Labor’s longest-serving premier, Mike Rann, is in deep trouble in South Australia, where the ALP’s primary vote has been overtaken by the state Liberals, leaving tied after preferences. Labor’s primary vote in Queensland dropped five percentage points to 38 per cent, against 41 per cent for the newly merged Liberal National Party.

There is now a dual message that is more lethal than the Labor Party anticipated, and which offers fresh hope for the Liberal Party. It is caused by the combination of ineffective state ALP governments, the absence of any Liberal incumbent on which to cast blame, and the disposition of the Australian voter for political balance.

f there was a large swing against Labor in Western Australia, let alone a loss, it would send a jolt right across a continent papered with wall-to-wall Labor governments. Inevitably, federal Labor would feel a touch nervous. This would affect the mood for the busy spring parliamentary session and Labor’s work on its extensive agenda.

During the counting of votes for this month’s Northern Territory general election, media commentators were telling us that the swing against Labor was 9 per cent. Several people have asked me to tell them what that figure really may mean.

The big news of the week, rather surprisingly, wasn’t the Olympic Games. However, the media still found time to complain about the Chinese government. On the local front, Labor managed to hang on in the Northern Territory, Federal Labor actually made a decision, and Peter Costello waited some more for his book launch.

The make up of the Northern Territory parliament rested on the result in Fannie Bay. If Labor had failed to secure the seat, Independent Gerry Wood would have held the balance of power in the hung parliament.

The Northern Territory poll produced the first threat to Labor’s historic hold on power federally and in every state and territory across the nation. If Labor loses the seat of Fannie Bay as well as the three other electorates that are all but certain to fall to the Country Liberal Party, there will be a hung parliament with the balance of power resting with an independent - former chicken farmer Gerry Wood.

Although the final results may not be known for days, commentators are predicting that Labor will return to government with a one-seat majority. It is the first chink in Labor’s historic hold on power federally and in every state and territory across the nation.

It has been predicted that the Labor Government will drop from 19 seats to 13, while the Country Liberal Party will climb from four to 11. The shock result stunned Chief Minister Paul Henderson, whose party has suffered a 9 per cent swing, which claimed the scalps of three of his ministers.

In the last Northern Territory election, Labor stormed to victory with an 11 per cent swing in its favour to eventually win 19 of the Territory’s 25 seats. Former chief minister Clare Martin says the buoyant NT economy will cushion Labor from any swing.