Emeritus Professor David Black, of Curtin University, said in releasing its internal polling, Labor had shown its hand by revealing 57 per cent of voters expected a Carpenter win. “They realise they’re in trouble,” Prof Black said today. “What they want to do is tell the electorate is ‘it won’t be a wake-up call, we’ll actually lose’.”

The internal Labor Party research, which was leaked to Channel Seven, suggested that the Carpenter Government could suffer a swing against it of as much as seven per cent at the poll on September 6. The Liberals, who need a swing of only four per cent to gain government, would be left with a 15 seat majority, if the polling was accurate. However, the leaked research also found that two-thirds of voters thought Labor would win the election.

During the 12 years of the Howard government, these voters were capable of voting for John Howard federally, then turning to throw their support behind Labor at the state level. The question was always what these voters would do once the government changed in Canberra, and now we are starting to get an answer.

The big news of the week, rather surprisingly, wasn’t the Olympic Games. However, the media still found time to complain about the Chinese government. On the local front, Labor managed to hang on in the Northern Territory, Federal Labor actually made a decision, and Peter Costello waited some more for his book launch.

The latest Newspoll reveals that Labor’s lead of 54 per cent to 46 per cent has been eroded to such a point that little now separates it and the Opposition on a two-party-preferred basis, with Labor just ahead at 51 per cent to 49 per cent. Combined primary support for the two conservative parties — the Liberals and the Nationals — jumped seven points to equal Labor on 42 per cent.

The Northern Territory poll produced the first threat to Labor’s historic hold on power federally and in every state and territory across the nation. If Labor loses the seat of Fannie Bay as well as the three other electorates that are all but certain to fall to the Country Liberal Party, there will be a hung parliament with the balance of power resting with an independent - former chicken farmer Gerry Wood.

In June the Corruption and Crime Commission found that the Opposition Racing and Gaming Spokesman had tabled a motion in Parliament provided by the lobbyist Brian Burke. Mr McGrath says he does not want to be a liability to the Liberals during the campaign.