Needing to win nine seats to form a conservative government with the help of the Nationals, the Liberals were almost certain to win ten after yesterday’s state election. Huge swings of more than six per cent against the government in many seats exceeded poll predictions of a four per cent swing to the opposition.

Labor called the state election one day after Colin Barnett was elected Liberal leader, making this year’s election the earliest in 100 years. The first half of the campaign was timed to overlap the Olympic Games, to drown out the Opposition. That tactic backfired and Barnett got a two-week honeymoon.

The Newspoll indicates Labor could lose at least nine seats - and office - if a 4 per cent swing in marginal seats becomes uniform across the state. The results are seriously bad news for Labor, which earlier this week said it would have lost an election held last weekend.

Emeritus Professor David Black, of Curtin University, said in releasing its internal polling, Labor had shown its hand by revealing 57 per cent of voters expected a Carpenter win. “They realise they’re in trouble,” Prof Black said today. “What they want to do is tell the electorate is ‘it won’t be a wake-up call, we’ll actually lose’.”

The internal Labor Party research, which was leaked to Channel Seven, suggested that the Carpenter Government could suffer a swing against it of as much as seven per cent at the poll on September 6. The Liberals, who need a swing of only four per cent to gain government, would be left with a 15 seat majority, if the polling was accurate. However, the leaked research also found that two-thirds of voters thought Labor would win the election.

The latest Newspoll reveals that Labor’s lead of 54 per cent to 46 per cent has been eroded to such a point that little now separates it and the Opposition on a two-party-preferred basis, with Labor just ahead at 51 per cent to 49 per cent. Combined primary support for the two conservative parties — the Liberals and the Nationals — jumped seven points to equal Labor on 42 per cent.

In June the Corruption and Crime Commission found that the Opposition Racing and Gaming Spokesman had tabled a motion in Parliament provided by the lobbyist Brian Burke. Mr McGrath says he does not want to be a liability to the Liberals during the campaign.

With the disgraced leader Troy Buswell at the helm, West Australian Premier Alan Carpenter was coasting to victory. Buswell was doing all of Labor’s work. But with Colin Barnett in the chair, the premier and his well-oiled Labor machine now have a completely different equation with which to deal.

The relatively short 31-day campaign coincides with the Beijing Olympics and is designed to make sure new Liberal leader Colin Barnett’s message gets little clear air. The Carpenter Government has been dogged by scandal since the premier lifted a ban on government ministers dealing with the disgraced former premier Brian Burke.

Mr Buswell, 42, denied he was pushed from the leadership of the West Australian Liberal Party after a series of scandals that included the admission he had sniffed the chair of a female staffer. But he admitted that he spent the weekend talking to a small group of senior party members about his future.