After the resignation of popular local member and former foreign minister Alexander Downer, the Liberals suffered a 10 per cent swing on the primary vote. Family First candidate Bob Day, who stood as a Liberal in last year’s general election, picked up most of the Liberal vote while the Greens vote was up by more than 11 per cent.

Deputy New South Wales Premier and Transport Minister John Watkins is quitting politics, Premier Morris Iemma announced today. Mr Watkins will retire from Parliament, forcing an immediate frontbench reshuffle and a by-election in the north-western Sydney electorate of Ryde.

The problem for the National Party is that the pattern of urbanisation in the seat of Lyne is typical of many electorates that were once considered rural. Small towns are dying out and big towns are getting bigger. In New England and Calare, this trend contributed to the election of independent MPs; in other electorates the Liberals or Labor have been the beneficiaries.

f there was a large swing against Labor in Western Australia, let alone a loss, it would send a jolt right across a continent papered with wall-to-wall Labor governments. Inevitably, federal Labor would feel a touch nervous. This would affect the mood for the busy spring parliamentary session and Labor’s work on its extensive agenda.

If popular independent state MP Rob Oakeshott, the hot favourite for the seat of Lyne, wins the September 6 byelection, the inexorable decline of the Nationals will be seen to continue. They’ll have only nine seats in the House of Representatives and the prospect of a merger with the Liberals will be increased.

Senior Liberal Party members had been courting the state MP for Port Macquarie, Robert Oakeshott, but he now says he will run as an independent. The seat of Lyne will hold a by-election in September following the resignation of former Nationals leader and deputy prime minister Mark Vaile.