No Democratic presidential candidate has won Virginia since Lyndon B. Johnson in 1964, and the selection of Sarah Palin has improved Mr. McCain’s chances of carrying the state. Even so, Senator Barack Obama, the Democratic presidential nominee, still clearly sees an opportunity here, and has opened more than 41 offices in the state.

The United States is changing and the Democratic liberals might be able (just) to win a national election without the overwhelming support of the alienated white working class. If such a victory doesn’t happen this time, it will soon. The US, like Britain, is seeing the rise of what one might call a mass chattering class.

Lynton Crosby is a former federal director of the Liberal Party and together with his business partner, the pollster Mark Textor, was seen as vital to Howard’s long winning streak, which came to an end in last November’s federal election. Crosby’s golden rule No. 2 might have rung most loudly in Liberal ears.