The problem for the voters of Lyne is that the high profile of newly elected independent MP Rob Oakeshott will not necessarily translate into real political achievement. Not unless the government of the day becomes dependent on one or more independents to sustain its majority in the House of Representatives.

This week saw big problems emerge for the Labor Party in New South Wales and Western Australia, while federally the Nationals shrank even further with the loss of Lyne. In the Senate, Steve Fielding voted down the luxury car tax increase, while in the United States, Sarah Palin has garnered an immediate and positive reaction.

The problem for the National Party is that the pattern of urbanisation in the seat of Lyne is typical of many electorates that were once considered rural. Small towns are dying out and big towns are getting bigger. In New England and Calare, this trend contributed to the election of independent MPs; in other electorates the Liberals or Labor have been the beneficiaries.

If popular independent state MP Rob Oakeshott, the hot favourite for the seat of Lyne, wins the September 6 byelection, the inexorable decline of the Nationals will be seen to continue. They’ll have only nine seats in the House of Representatives and the prospect of a merger with the Liberals will be increased.