Labor’s hegemony was an aberration matched only once in Australian history by a similarly brief period of conservative rule in 1969 and 1970. Projecting recent trends forward would see the defeat of the Bligh Government in Queensland next year, the Rann Government in early 2010 and the Rees Government in NSW in early 2011.
Labor’s longest-serving premier, Mike Rann, is in deep trouble in South Australia, where the ALP’s primary vote has been overtaken by the state Liberals, leaving tied after preferences. Labor’s primary vote in Queensland dropped five percentage points to 38 per cent, against 41 per cent for the newly merged Liberal National Party.
The new Opposition front bench rewards those who supported the new leader, but does not do so at the expense of the Coalition’s strengths. Malcolm Turnbull may have the massive ego that his enemies like to complain about, but it evidently has not prevented him from becoming a shrewder judge of power plays in the party room than he was 10 months ago.
The most spectacular victim of Malcolm Turnbull’s cabinet reshuffle was Tony Smith. The former Peter Costello supporter, who voted for Turnbull last year but switched to Brendan Nelson last week, paid a heavy price by being given the role of shadow assistant treasurer. Smith will be back at some stage but his only consolation yesterday was platitudes from Turnbull about being part of a crack financial team.
By figuring out who got what piece of the excess revenue that was generated by lower unemployment and the China-led resources boom since 2004, we get a better idea of the reform hurdles ahead for the Rudd Government. Assuming that no government will want to take money off people, how do you fix a system that is, in many respects, overly generous?
Victorian Andrew Robb has been given the elevated portfolio of infrastructure, federal-state relations and emissions trading. The former foreign affairs spokesman said the Opposition would develop policies that would challenge Labor’s approach on many issues. Mr Robb said today that he was well-placed to develop bold ideas in the area because Labor was failing to develop environmental policies with the economy front and centre.
The new Opposition Leader named sustainable development, in all areas including cities, as his key personal policy interest, signalling a dramatic departure from the direction of the Howard government, which saw no role for the commonwealth in urban affairs. But as Mr Turnbull trumpeted his forward-looking approach, Labor’s Julia Gillard said his team was stacked with climate-change sceptics and cheerleaders for Mr. Howard’s Work Choices industrial relations laws.
The Liberal leadership saga has overshadowed growing unrest within the Government over industrial relations, which the Prime Minister will again avoid this week. Some backbenchers fear Julia Gillard’s proposed industrial relations legislation is too similar to Work Choices. Last Tuesday, while Brendan Nelson was being dumped, New South Wales senator Steve Hutchins was telling a restive Labor caucus that the legislation was “Work Choices lite”.
The big losers in Malcolm Turnbull’s shadow cabinet reshuffle are Nelson backers Nick Minchin, dumped from defence to communications, and Tony Smith, who has been dumped from education to the assistant treasury role, although at least it is an economic portfolio. Arguably Tony Abbott, who wanted to move from the welfare portfolio, and Andrew Robb, who wanted treasury and got infrastructure, haven’t done terribly well either.
The Prime Minister today defended the trip as in the national interest, and received some unlikely support today from Independent Senator Nick Xenophon, who said now was the time to talk to world leaders in the wake of the global financial crisis. But Liberal frontbencher Eric Abetz said this morning: “Kevin747 seems to be a very good little tagline for him. It’s, unfortunately, indicative of what he’s been doing in recent times.”