Malcolm Turnbull has always known what he wants, and why. He eased into the leader’s chair on Tuesday with an authority that immediately put the Government on notice that things were now going to be very, very different for it. On Turnbull’s team things will be very, very different, too. And not just because he’s leader.

The problem for the voters of Lyne is that the high profile of newly elected independent MP Rob Oakeshott will not necessarily translate into real political achievement. Not unless the government of the day becomes dependent on one or more independents to sustain its majority in the House of Representatives.

With the outcome of the Western Australian election in doubt and upheavals in New South Wales, the aftershocks of the weekend’s ruptures in the Labor Party will be felt in Canberra. But other parties also have their problems. From coast-to-coast Labor governments to coast-to-coast confusion has taken a mere 10 months.

Rob Oakeshott’s crushing victory in Lyne is a clear example of how, if they are offered the choice of an independent candidate with a strong track record, electors in regional and rural areas who feel their local interests aren’t being addressed or are being sacrificed to other interests, will ignore their traditional party allegiances.

This week saw big problems emerge for the Labor Party in New South Wales and Western Australia, while federally the Nationals shrank even further with the loss of Lyne. In the Senate, Steve Fielding voted down the luxury car tax increase, while in the United States, Sarah Palin has garnered an immediate and positive reaction.

Rob Oakeshott, a former member of the Nationals, was widely tipped to win the Lyne by-election, which was triggered by former deputy Prime Minister Mark Vaile’s resignation from politics earlier this year. Mr Oakeshott stepped down from his state seat of Port Macquarie, which he held for 12 years, to contest the election.

The problem for the National Party is that the pattern of urbanisation in the seat of Lyne is typical of many electorates that were once considered rural. Small towns are dying out and big towns are getting bigger. In New England and Calare, this trend contributed to the election of independent MPs; in other electorates the Liberals or Labor have been the beneficiaries.

If popular independent state MP Rob Oakeshott, the hot favourite for the seat of Lyne, wins the September 6 byelection, the inexorable decline of the Nationals will be seen to continue. They’ll have only nine seats in the House of Representatives and the prospect of a merger with the Liberals will be increased.

Senior Liberal Party members had been courting the state MP for Port Macquarie, Robert Oakeshott, but he now says he will run as an independent. The seat of Lyne will hold a by-election in September following the resignation of former Nationals leader and deputy prime minister Mark Vaile.