Despite an intense effort to distance himself from the way his party has done business in Washington, Senator John McCain is seen by voters as far less likely to bring change to Washington than Senator Barack Obama. He is widely viewed as a “typical Republican” who would continue or expand President Bush’s policies.

Women have voted in greater proportions than men for almost three decades. But the hard-fought candidacy of Hillary Rodham Clinton and John McCain’s selection of Sarah Palin as the first woman on a Republican presidential ticket have put new cultural and ideological elements more fully into play.

For whatever reasons, Brendan Nelson’s poll figures are dismal, his impact nowhere to be seen, and under his leadership, the Opposition is going backwards. Senior Liberals need to learn from history and not make the same mistake they made with Howard in 2006: someone needs to tell him that it is time to go.

Senator Obama is the first presidential candidate to shun public financing, confident that he can keep reeling in small and large donations from his army of givers, which now numbers more than 2.5 million people. Obama has more than $US77 million in cash on hand, according to aides, and will seek to press home his advantage.

With the stench of the Wollongong Council corruption scandal, developer donations and the New South Wales State Government’s radical planning reforms believed to be the main reasons for the Labor Party’s fall from favour, the Premier, Nathan Rees, said voters had sent a clear message to his Government.

Opinion polls have shown the Clark Government trailing the main opposition National Party for several months, although the gap narrowed to 6.5 percentage points at the start of September. The announcement came amidst a scandal involving political donations to Foreign Minister Winston Peters’ New Zealand First Party.

Tellingly, the McCain campaign has announced no large rallies with Senator McCain alone, and a senior McCain aide said Wednesday that the campaign was considering keeping Gov. Palin and Mr. McCain together for appearances more often than is usual for running mates — perhaps more so than any ticket in recent times.

Once Barack Obama had chosen Joe Biden as his running mate, the Republican Party realised that he had left a hole in electoral support that Sarah Palin could drive a truck through. In barely a week, John McCain has received a ten point bounce in the polls. Today’s Gallup poll has McCain four points ahead of Obama.

Peter Costello has all but ruled out running for the Liberal leadership. “I’m not seeking the Liberal Party leadership,” the former treasurer said in an interview. “They say: ‘Oh we’ve had a bad week, better bring Costello back.’ I think that’s basically what happened. And I said: ‘No, I’m not seeking the leadership, I don’t want the leadership.’

After begging Peter Costello to reclaim a leadership role, senior Liberals have complained privately the red carpet has been rolled out for him but he won’t make up his mind. Frontbencher Tony Abbott has also told ABC radio that a string of bad polls has “dismayed” the party but is also the fate of any newly minted opposition.