The question we want answered is whether the growth slowdown under way will be another mid-cycle correction as in 1996 and 2001, or alternatively the long-predicted business cycle recession, last seen 17 years ago in the recession we had to have? Unfortunately corrections and recessions can look similar in their initial stages.

For the first time in months, the Prime Minister spoke on budget measures without referring to a “cheat sheet” of budget facts and delivered telling political lines without bureaucratic jargon. Instead of “prosecuting a process of economic responsibility”, Rudd whacked the Coalition for backing “Porsche drivers” instead of working families.

The Longreach-born lawyer took the oaths of allegiance and office at Canberra’s Parliament House in the presence of the Prime Minister and chief Justice Robert French. “Australians, you have entrusted a great deal to me. I will honour your trust wholeheartedly,” she told dignitaries, friends and family in the crowded Senate chamber.

The first publicly available results from the Treasury’s emissions trading modelling reveal that a 10 per cent emission reduction would reduce Australia’s GDP by 1.1 per cent by 2020 and result in a carbon price by that date of about $34.50.

While the conservative side of politics considers abandoning economic credibility for populism, voters are growing wary - if not weary - of the Rudd style. The early, euphoric symbolism of ratifying Kyoto and saying Sorry is being displaced by a harsh reality that Rudd is no messiah.

The Rudd Government’s push for greater transparency in the performance of schools has been widely read as copycat politics. Successive Liberal ministers were determined to “out” poorly performing schools. How is Kevin Rudd different?

Federal Education Minister Gillard claims the debate about resourcing is over. She echoes political opponents who haven’t given a damn about educational equity since the Menzies era. The debate, according to Rudd and Gillard, is now about values and tough love — which means tough times for many government schools.

Successive Labor governments have ignored the union movement’s power inside the party. The example of Simon Crean is no great encouragement to further action. But it is a problem that is not going to go away. Party members in New South Wales are emboldened by the victory they have achieved over the Iemma Government.

Kevin Rudd fought the election by promising “fresh leadership” that would make our lives better without involving unpopular change. Indeed, he promised to retain vast swathes of John Howard’s policies. In short, he promised change without change. The public’s slowly growing disillusionment with the Rudd Government represents its dawning realisation that change without change isn’t possible.

Much of Kevin Rudd’s foreign policy ambition remains in suspension, awaiting president Obama or president McCain, either of whom will bring new authority and distinguish their policies from President George W. Bush. So far Rudd has finessed Bush with skill. But John Howard remains Bush’s Australian prime minister and Rudd knows there are strict limits to what he can accomplish with the current administration.