Labor’s hegemony was an aberration matched only once in Australian history by a similarly brief period of conservative rule in 1969 and 1970. Projecting recent trends forward would see the defeat of the Bligh Government in Queensland next year, the Rann Government in early 2010 and the Rees Government in NSW in early 2011.
Labor’s longest-serving premier, Mike Rann, is in deep trouble in South Australia, where the ALP’s primary vote has been overtaken by the state Liberals, leaving tied after preferences. Labor’s primary vote in Queensland dropped five percentage points to 38 per cent, against 41 per cent for the newly merged Liberal National Party.
Three state and territory Labor governments are at the heart of the storms buffeting Australian politics. New South Wales’ economy is shrinking and last week its government imploded spectacularly. The Northern Territory Government mismanaged the crisis of child protection in indigenous communities that led to the federal intervention last year. And the West Australian Government is on the verge of losing office after an opportunistic and cynical election campaign.
Resurgent Liberal leader Colin Barnett, who put aside plans of retirement to contest the election, will meet Brendon Grylls today, in order to try to lock in the four seats the Nationals are expected to win. Mr Grylls has promised to support the party most willing to back his “royalties for regions” plan.
After the resignation of popular local member and former foreign minister Alexander Downer, the Liberals suffered a 10 per cent swing on the primary vote. Family First candidate Bob Day, who stood as a Liberal in last year’s general election, picked up most of the Liberal vote while the Greens vote was up by more than 11 per cent.
Hopes that winter rains had brought a lengthy reprieve for the lower lakes at the mouth of the Murray were dashed by advice to Climate Change Minister Penny Wong from her department, revealing that a decision on whether to inundate them with sea water might have to be made as soon as February. With another long, rainless summer looming, the situation in the lower basin was the worst since records began in 1892.
This week was a week of number twos on a variety of fronts. In the US, Joe Biden became Barack Obama’s new sidekick, while in Australia, the minor parties in the Senate geared up to take on their new roles as second fiddles. Meanwhile, in the entertainment world, ‘Stargate Atlantis’ was cancelled and replaced by ‘Stargate Universe’.
During the 12 years of the Howard government, these voters were capable of voting for John Howard federally, then turning to throw their support behind Labor at the state level. The question was always what these voters would do once the government changed in Canberra, and now we are starting to get an answer.
Federal cabinet, meeting in Adelaide, a centre of the unfolding crisis, signed off on $50 million in additional spending to accelerate the buyback of water rights, which has so far had minimal impact. But the Opposition dismissed the package as “paper money”, while South Australia’s balance-of-power senator Nick Xenophon said it did not go far enough.
Despite a trend showing a slow decline in Labor’s primary vote and a decline in Mr Rann’s high personal approval ratings - which fell from 60 per cent in January-March last year to 51 per cent in April-June this year - the South Australian Premier is still regarded as Labor’s “trump card” for the 2010 election.