The latest Newspoll in Victoria makes stark reading for the Libs. It suggests not much has changed since Steve Bracks’ thumping win over then new-boy Opposition Leader Ted Baillieu in 2006. At the election, Labor won about 54.5% of the vote after the distribution of preferences. In the July-August Newspoll, Labor garnered 54%.
The problem for the National Party is that the pattern of urbanisation in the seat of Lyne is typical of many electorates that were once considered rural. Small towns are dying out and big towns are getting bigger. In New England and Calare, this trend contributed to the election of independent MPs; in other electorates the Liberals or Labor have been the beneficiaries.
Knowing that Lawrence Springborg’s attempts to merge the warring state Liberal and Nationals had failed twice before, Queensland Premier Anna Bligh claimed that a merger would be a test of Springborg’s leadership. The problem for Bligh is that Springborg has pulled off what many had thought was politically impossible.
The New South Wales Premier, Morris Iemma, withdrew the electricity industry privatisation legislation from a special sitting of parliament earlier today, when it became clear it would be defeated by a combination of the Coalition, Independent and minor party MPs, and Labor Party renegades.
The Coalition will vote against a number of budget measures when they go before the Senate later this year. The Government will then need the votes of five Greens senators, Independent Senator Nick Xenophon and Family First Senator Steve Fielding to pass its legislation.
The latest Newspoll reveals that Labor’s lead of 54 per cent to 46 per cent has been eroded to such a point that little now separates it and the Opposition on a two-party-preferred basis, with Labor just ahead at 51 per cent to 49 per cent. Combined primary support for the two conservative parties — the Liberals and the Nationals — jumped seven points to equal Labor on 42 per cent.
By opposing a bill of rights, the Liberal and National parties will align themselves with leading Labor intellectuals, including Bob Carr and former Labor staffer and now NSW Chief Justice James Spigelman, along with NSW Labor Attorney-General John Hatzistergos and many others within the ALP. Senator George Brandis, one of the Coalition’s sharpest minds, knows what he’s doing politically but he also knows why he’s doing it constitutionally.
If popular independent state MP Rob Oakeshott, the hot favourite for the seat of Lyne, wins the September 6 byelection, the inexorable decline of the Nationals will be seen to continue. They’ll have only nine seats in the House of Representatives and the prospect of a merger with the Liberals will be increased.
Senior Liberal Party members had been courting the state MP for Port Macquarie, Robert Oakeshott, but he now says he will run as an independent. The seat of Lyne will hold a by-election in September following the resignation of former Nationals leader and deputy prime minister Mark Vaile.
In the 21st century, we can no longer rely on the Labor, Liberal or National parties to be the only sources of all the best talent for our parliamentary and ministerial positions. The main parties are simply too small and unrepresentative of the community to be the sole source of the best and brightest legislators we can produce.