Knowing that Lawrence Springborg’s attempts to merge the warring state Liberal and Nationals had failed twice before, Queensland Premier Anna Bligh claimed that a merger would be a test of Springborg’s leadership. The problem for Bligh is that Springborg has pulled off what many had thought was politically impossible.

Emeritus Professor David Black, of Curtin University, said in releasing its internal polling, Labor had shown its hand by revealing 57 per cent of voters expected a Carpenter win. “They realise they’re in trouble,” Prof Black said today. “What they want to do is tell the electorate is ‘it won’t be a wake-up call, we’ll actually lose’.”

The internal Labor Party research, which was leaked to Channel Seven, suggested that the Carpenter Government could suffer a swing against it of as much as seven per cent at the poll on September 6. The Liberals, who need a swing of only four per cent to gain government, would be left with a 15 seat majority, if the polling was accurate. However, the leaked research also found that two-thirds of voters thought Labor would win the election.

During the 12 years of the Howard government, these voters were capable of voting for John Howard federally, then turning to throw their support behind Labor at the state level. The question was always what these voters would do once the government changed in Canberra, and now we are starting to get an answer.

The latest Newspoll reveals that Labor’s lead of 54 per cent to 46 per cent has been eroded to such a point that little now separates it and the Opposition on a two-party-preferred basis, with Labor just ahead at 51 per cent to 49 per cent. Combined primary support for the two conservative parties — the Liberals and the Nationals — jumped seven points to equal Labor on 42 per cent.

The Northern Territory poll produced the first threat to Labor’s historic hold on power federally and in every state and territory across the nation. If Labor loses the seat of Fannie Bay as well as the three other electorates that are all but certain to fall to the Country Liberal Party, there will be a hung parliament with the balance of power resting with an independent - former chicken farmer Gerry Wood.

In June the Corruption and Crime Commission found that the Opposition Racing and Gaming Spokesman had tabled a motion in Parliament provided by the lobbyist Brian Burke. Mr McGrath says he does not want to be a liability to the Liberals during the campaign.

With the disgraced leader Troy Buswell at the helm, West Australian Premier Alan Carpenter was coasting to victory. Buswell was doing all of Labor’s work. But with Colin Barnett in the chair, the premier and his well-oiled Labor machine now have a completely different equation with which to deal.

Mr Buswell, 42, denied he was pushed from the leadership of the West Australian Liberal Party after a series of scandals that included the admission he had sniffed the chair of a female staffer. But he admitted that he spent the weekend talking to a small group of senior party members about his future.

The West Australian Opposition Leader, who has been in the job for just seven months, made international headlines over a chair-sniffing incident involving a female Liberal Party staffer. It is believed that internal party polling was the catalyst for Mr Buswell’s resignation.